Yrump Will Win - US attorney Alan Dershowitz says Donald Trump will be the favorite to win the presidency if the US election goes to court - which shows that our country's judiciary is overpowered.
Today's presidential election is going down to the wire with a handful of tightly contested states to decide the winner between Trump and Joe Biden.
Yrump Will Win
Dershowitz, a lawyer who has represented a series of high-profile and often controversial figures including Jeffrey Epstein and OJ Simpson, believes that Biden is the likely winner of the Electoral College but Trump could emerge victorious if the election ends up in court. .
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Both are seeking the 270 votes needed for a majority in the Electoral College. Biden is doing better in the polls, but it is proving closer than expected, and Trump won the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Texas.
"Well, I think it's more likely that Biden will win the vote, the necessary electoral vote, but if he goes to the court, Trump should be the favorite in the court because he appoints many judges at the three levels of our system the." said Dershowitz.
Trump made baseless claims on Monday night about fraud in the election process. It is expected that the Supreme Court will stop the vote even though the high court will not hear direct challenges and review cases that came down from lower courts.
Dershowitz teaches law at Harvard and is the youngest law professor in the University's history. / Brooks Kraft LLC / Corbis / VCG
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Legal experts said the election results could be engulfed in state-by-state litigation over a range of issues, including whether states can include late ballots cast on Election Day.
"They say we're an incredibly divided country and they think the judiciary has too much power in a democracy," he said.
"It is, after all, an elitist branch of government that is not accountable to the people. It is a virtue and a vice, but this is America. We are not a pure democracy like the parliamentary democracies in Europe." economic protection that last month produced 266,000 jobs and unemployment held at 3.5 percent, a record low in 50 years. The impact of these numbers and what they say about the president in the White House is the subject of this column.
The economic model has experts such as Ray Fair, Yale University professor, politician Alan Abramowitz, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, calling the 2020 election for Trump. Zandi qualified his prediction with several "ifs" that could change the equation such as a recession, a dip in Trump's popularity, or a large Democratic turnout.
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No one knows how the impeachment will play out politically, but Democrats are trying to move forward and Speaker Pelosi announced almost simultaneously with the articles of impeachment that she had reached an agreement with the White House on the passage of the USMCA, the reworked trade agreement. Trump is there. indicating the Democrats won. 'Don't defend them to prevent them from doing the people's business.
"There is a path for Trump to win re-election," said Jim Kessler of Third Way, a moderate Democratic group. . so." Kessler said Medicare for All and the Green New Deal should be red flags for Democrats.
The way to counter Trump's hold on the economy is to focus more on jobs. Kessler said the economy is not as strong as you might think. Most of the growth is on the coast and in some large cities. Between 2012 and 2016, half of America's counties lost jobs. Between 2000 and 2016, the Borough of Queens gained more private sector jobs than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin combined—and that's without Amazon.
When Amazon pulled out of Queens, people cheered. "A week later, when GM left Lordstown, Ohio, people were crying," Kessler told the Daily Beast. "The economy is doing well in certain places, and it's a little complicated for everybody. There's still concern. A Democrat can win if they can convince voters they can be as good or better in the economy than what they've experienced. under Trump But if they think Democrats are a risk to the overall economy and local jobs, they'll hold their noses and vote for Trump.
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For another perspective, I called Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in the Governance Studies program at the Brookings Institution. "I'm not at all desperate," he said, although he acknowledged the need to lift the spirits of those suffering from what he called "PTSD among Democrats" shocked by what happened in 2016 "and worried it could happen again." "
The economy is a variable, but it's not predictive, and the other variable, job approval, is just as important as the economy, "and Trump doesn't have the discipline to get out of his own way," Kamarck said.
His job approval is in the mid-40s, and if he listens to his advisers in 2018 and talks about a growing economy instead of worsening immigration and the crisis at the border, he could wipe out the Democratic blue wave , he said.
There is not a single state that Hillary Clinton won that the Democrats will lose, and the key states that she lost—Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—will return to the fold with increased black participation. Kamarck said that the decline in the black community in Milwaukee and Detroit was greater than the number of votes he lost, "which means that you have to increase the black vote".
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Democrats took the black vote for granted in 2016, and that won't happen next year, he said. "Democrats do a lot of stupid things, but they don't do the same stupid things in two election cycles." He hopes to see a strong campaign to send out black voters in 2020.
Trump is unique among presidents in that he has never tried to broaden his base. Kamarck said, holding on to his winning streak would make sense if he won with 53 percent of the vote. But he was elected with 46.1 percent, and his base was too small to guarantee re-election.
Kamarck's advice to Democrats is to get rid of their obsession with health care. "The problem with this obsession is, in America if you've got good jobs, you've got good health care. Democrats need to spend more time talking about good jobs."
American University history professor Alan Lichtman has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, including Trump's upset victory in 2016. "I'm definitely not calling it (the 2020 election) right now," he told the Daily Beast, "If you base it .about calling it for Trump—but you would call it for the Democrats in '68 and in 2000 and in 2016.
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Lichtman's 13 keys look at a range of factors from internal party battles and social unrest to foreign policy wins and losses, and the charisma of the incumbent and his challenges. "Impeachment is key, but only one," he told the Daily Beast, "although it can trigger others depending on how it plays out."
Lichtman points to a piece of history that could be a prediction. The next election after a president resigns, the party in power loses. The Democrats lost the election of 1868 after supporting Democrat Andrew Johnson. The Republicans lost the White House in 1976 after the resignation of Richard Nixon. George W. Bush's 2000 victory after Bill Clinton's impeachment paved the way for Bush to regain the honor and dignity of the Oval Office.
"There are only three examples, and they are not positive for the party that holds the White House," Lichtman said.
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